Box sets » Welfare trends report - June 2026
In this box, we explained how fraud and error in welfare benefits are defined and measured. We also explored the main causes of overpayments in universal credit and the uncertainties involved in estimating fraud and error rates.
In this box, we explored how the accounting treatment of universal credit overpayments can create a fiscal illusion. While borrowing eventually reflects the true cost of unrecovered overpayments, long delays in recognising write-offs mean borrowing is understated over the forecast period.